As some of you know already, and others are learning just today, we have added Cold Brew Coffee to our suite of products alongside our kombuchas and functional sodas. As we navigate the new-to-us terrain of the coffee commodity markets, we’ll share what we’re learning and help all of us stay connected to the factors driving that market.
What determines coffee pricing?
Coffee prices have three main tiers. In this series we will address all three and how they’re currently and actively affecting coffee pricing.
The Current State
The last 8 months have seen an unprecedented spike in the price of unroasted green coffee beans.
This is now being exacerbated by market confusion due to tariffs, out-of-the-ordinary buying patterns as companies have responded to the tumult, and a 2025 harvest outlook impacted by unusually dry weather in South America.
THE RESULT
After trading consistently between $1.45 per pound and $2.49 per pound for three years, unroasted green coffee prices began to steadily climb in July 2024. They peaked at $4.40/lb in February 2025 and have since fallen slightly.
As of this writing, the price was at $3.43/lb
See below for what this spike looks like in the context of coffee pricing over the last 5 years.
MARKET DYNAMICS
- Tariffs announced on April 2nd 2025 will impact all countries that the United States imports coffee from.
- Concerns about overall demand -- global exports in January fell 13.3% compared to YAG.
- Weather in Brazil -- it’s dry, which is contributing to speculation about a down year for harvests.
RETAIL PRICING CHART
We will be tracking how the turmoil in the commodity market may be impacting retail prices in the chilled RTD multiserve coffee category.
What to Watch For
We will be keenly awaiting early reports of rainfall and flower fixation on coffee plants in Brazil, which are scheduled for release in early April.
Currently, projections for the 2025-26 crop show Brazil producing 4 million less bags of Arabica for the 2025/2026 crop, and 1 million less bags produced across all coffee origin countries, but truer numbers will come out with the *flowering*. We will include a review of the results of these reports, and the market’s response to them, in the May edition of this newsletter.
